ESTABLISHING A COMBINED FORECASTING MODEL: A CASE STUDY ON THE LOGISTIC DEMAND OF NANJING’S GREEN TEA INDUSTRY IN CHINA
针对绿茶市场信息不清、数据有限的问题，利用时间序列和TOPSIS方法建立了一个简单快速的组合预测模型，并用南京绿茶产业的实际物流需求验证了其实用性。
The sales logistics of tea leaves is a process that organically integrates basic logistics activities, including transportation, storage, loading, unloading, carrying, packaging, distribution processing, delivery, and information processing. This process requires quick and accurate forecasting of the logistics demand in the green tea market and the provision of feedback to businesses and farming partners, revealing the need for a simple and accurate forecasting method. Responding to and solving the unclear information and limited data available regarding the green tea market are critical. Therefore, this study established a simple, quick, and accurate model through the use of time series and the technique for ordering preferences by similarity to the ideal solution. Finally, the actual logistics demand in the Nanjing green tea industry was employed to verify the proposed model’s practicality and feasibility, which may provide a critical reference for relevant parties such as businesses and researchers.