Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake*
利用2011年东日本大地震的外生冲击，量化了投入产出联系在冲击传播和放大中的作用，发现地震导致日本实际GDP增长率下降0.47个百分点。
Abstract Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this article provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan’s real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.