Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle
在新凯恩斯DSGE模型中引入家庭杠杆，发现财政乘数在杠杆周期峰值时大于1，谷底时小于1，并用美国二战后数据验证了模型预测。
This paper investigates household leverage-dependent fiscal policy effects in a two-agent New Keynesian DSGE model with occasionally binding borrowing constraints. Our model successfully replicates empirical evidence showing that fiscal policy’s effectiveness differs significantly across the household leverage cycle. Fiscal multipliers are persistently above unity when government spending rises at the peak of the household leverage cycle. In contrast, increases in government spending at the trough of the household leverage cycle imply fiscal multipliers below unity. We test the model’s predictions on post-WWII U.S. data.