College Quality and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View
构建美国大学入学模式的时间序列，发现家庭背景在二战前更能预测大学入学，而学术能力在二战后更重要，并通过模型解释这一逆转。
We construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States and document a reversal: family background was a better predictor of college attendance before World War II, but academic ability was afterward. We construct a model of college choice that explains this reversal. The model’s central mechanism is that an exogenous surge of college attendance leads better colleges to be oversubscribed, institute selective admissions, and raise their quality relative to their peers, as in Hoxby (2009). Rising quality at better colleges attracts high-ability students, while falling quality at the remaining colleges dissuades low-ability students, generating the reversal.