结构化模糊性与模型误设

Structured ambiguity and model misspecification

Journal of Economic Theory · 2020
被引 36 · 同刊同年前 8%
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

研究决策者既厌恶结构化模型集合的模糊性,又怀疑每个模型可能误设,通过似然比和相对熵刻画非结构化替代模型,并探讨动态一致性与可容许性。

Abstract

A decision maker is averse to not knowing a prior over a set of restricted structured models (ambiguity) and suspects that each structured model is misspecified. The decision maker evaluates intertemporal plans under all of the structured models and, to recognize possible misspecifications, under unstructured alternatives that are statistically close to them. Likelihood ratio processes are used to represent unstructured alternative models, while relative entropy restricts a set of unstructured models. A set of structured models might be finite or indexed by a finite-dimensional vector of unknown parameters that could vary in unknown ways over time. We model such a decision maker with a dynamic version of variational preferences and revisit topics including dynamic consistency and admissibility.

模型误设定结构模糊变分偏好似然比