Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa
研究利用非洲1997-2014年冲突事件的地理定位数据，发现温度每升高1度，农牧民混居区冲突概率增加54%，并预测到2040年气候变化将使冲突数量上升三分之一。
Abstract We investigate the impact of climate shocks on farmer-herder violence, using geolocalized data on conflict events for Africa, 1997-2014. We find that a one degree temperature increase yields a 54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders (versus 17% in non-mixed areas). Quantifying the impact of projected climate change in 2040, we find that -when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements- annual conflicts are predicted to rise by a third. Drawing on a fine-grained analysis of groups' mobility patterns, we show that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence.