The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union
基于西班牙加入欧洲货币联盟后的房价周期，通过VAR模型和新凯恩斯模型分析劳动力市场刚性与金融摩擦对房价波动的放大效应，并评估央行对房价反应的政策后果。
The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it.We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all types of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996–2007 period.