Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Risk: Collective Optimism of Small-Business Owners
研究了小企业主如何评估宏观经济不确定性和风险，并报告对其商业活动的乐观情绪，发现经济政策不确定性降低乐观情绪，而商业投资和情绪波动则提升乐观情绪。
How small-business owners assess uncertainty and risk in the macroeconomic environment to report optimism toward their business activity is an important research question for policymakers and academics alike. Drawing on a monthly optimism index and a variety of uncertainty and volatility (risk) trackers from January 1986 to June 2017, in line with the expectation that business owners dislike uncertainty in economic policy, economic policy uncertainty may lower optimism. Business investment and sentiment volatility, however, contributed positively to optimism. The findings provide preliminary implications for policymakers in targeting indicators salient to the optimism index of small-business owners.