A Technology-Gap Model of ‘Premature’ Deindustrialization
提出一个简洁的机制来解释过早去工业化，发现国家间生产率差异在农业中最大、在制造业中最小，并通过扩展模型验证了机制的稳健性。
We propose a parsimonious mechanism for generating premature deindustrialization (PD). In the baseline model, the Baumol effect drives the hump-shaped path of the manufacturing share. Countries follow different paths due to the difference in the sector-specific adoption lags. The condition for PD under which countries differ only in technology gap implies that the cross-country productivity dispersion is the largest in agriculture. Moreover, when calibrated to match Rodrik’s (2016) findings, it is the smallest in manufacturing. In three extensions, we add the Engel effect, international trade, and catching up by late industrializers, to demonstrate the robustness of the mechanism.