On Taking a Skewed Risk More Than Once
研究发现,人们反复承担负偏斜风险(如捡硬币)看似矛盾,实则源于对正偏斜的偏好;通过多次赌博,负偏斜风险可转化为整体正偏斜,前景理论等经典理论可解释这一现象。
Penny-picking refers to the often-observed phenomenon of repeatedly taking negatively skewed risks and seems directly at odds with evidence on (positive-)skewness-seeking as observed in static settings. We show that penny-picking may not only occur despite skewness-seeking, but—seemingly paradoxically—because of skewness-seeking. With sufficient time available, risks with arbitrary negative skewness can be gambled in such a way that, overall, skewness is positive. Therefore, classical behavioral theories like prospect theory straightforwardly explain penny-picking. More generally, we show that the versatile dynamics of skewness reconcile apparent preference reversals concerning the avoidance and acceptance of (skewed and non-skewed) risks.