Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations
利用匹配个人预期、消费篮子和商品价格的微观数据，研究发现消费者形成通胀预期时更关注频繁购买商品的价格变化，且涨价影响大于降价。
Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and positive price changes loom larger than negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions. Our results provide empirical guidance for models of expectations formation with heterogeneous consumers.