Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit
研究美国联邦预算赤字是否长期可持续，通过人均赤字阈值自回归模型发现，政策制定者仅在人均赤字达到特定阈值时才干预削减赤字。
We contribute to the debate on whether the U.S. large federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policy makers will only intervene to reduce per capita deficit when it reaches a certain threshold.