Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?
基于比利时瓦隆区男性失业者的汇总数据，发现标准模型高估了真实负持续时间依赖，负持续时间依赖很大程度上是虚假的，并分解了失业风险的时变因素。
Abstract On the basis of aggregate data for the early 1990s, we analyse the determinants of unemployment duration for laid‐off male workers in Wallonia (Belgium). Our results indicate that if ranking in recruitment occurs, the standard mixed proportional hazard specification can be too restrictive, leading to an overstatement of the extent of true negative duration dependence. We conclude that negative duration dependence is largely spurious. We also decompose the time variation of the hazard in (unobserved) compositional and direct cyclical and seasonal effects. We find counter‐cyclical variation in the quality of young workers, but none for the prime aged. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.