WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECLINE IN CRIME?*
构建动态均衡模型，分析1980-1996年美国财产犯罪率下降的原因，发现逮捕概率提高、经济好转和人口老龄化是主因，失业影响微乎其微，而不平等加剧则阻碍了犯罪率的进一步下降。
In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.