Habit, Long-Run Risks, Prospect? A Statistical Inquiry
用贝叶斯统计方法比较三种资产定价模型，发现若认为1930-1949年的极端消费波动可能重演，则长期风险模型更优；否则习惯模型更优。
We use recently proposed Bayesian statistical methods to compare the habit persistence asset pricing model of Campbell and Cochrane, the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron, and the prospect theory model of Barberis, Huang, and Santos. We improve these Bayesian methods so that they can accommodate highly nonlinear models such as the three aforementioned. Our substantive results can be stated succinctly: If one believes that the extreme consumption fluctuations of 1930--1949 can recur, although they have not in the last sixty years even counting the current recession, then the long-run risks model is preferred. Otherwise, the habit model is preferred. Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.