What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence
用贝叶斯模型平均处理跨国增长回归中的模型不确定性，发现常用金融深度指标与长期增长关系不稳健，但金融中介效率指标稳健相关。
We examine the effect of finance on long-term economic growth using Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions. The literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets. We examine these indicators jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets. Once we subject the finance-growth regressions to model uncertainty, our results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long-term growth. However, the findings from our global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator—the efficiency of financial intermediaries—is robustly related to long-term growth.