CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
研究了CEO过度自信如何影响管理层预测的发布、乐观程度和精确度，发现过度自信会增加预测发布、乐观倾向和精确性。
Abstract This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the “over‐optimism” and “miscalibration” dimensions of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the precision of the forecast. Using both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, we find support for all three research questions.