The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence
利用足球博彩市场检验Barberis等人提出的“体制转换模型”，发现投资者行为与该模型的预测并不一致，为市场有效性提供了新证据。
ABSTRACT Bloomfield and Hales (2002) find strong evidence that experimental market subjects are influenced by trends and patterns in a manner supportive of the shifting regimes model of Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) . We subject the model to further empirical scrutiny using the football wagering market as our price laboratory. Sports betting markets have several advantages over traditional capital markets as an empirical setting, and commonalities with traditional markets allow for useful insights. We find scant evidence that investors behave in accordance with the model.