The Benefits of Risky Science
研究发现，科学家追求预期价值最高的项目会产生外部性，导致偏向现有工作的微小变化，而风险更高、能产生更多高价值后续项目的新研究被忽视。分析了减少沟通、市场机制和追求引用等解决方案。
When scientists choose research projects that have the highest expected value, an externality can appear. Slight variations on the existing work will be selected in preference to new lines of research that can, when followed up selectively, generate more expected value over time. New research enjoys two advantages: it is riskier and hence more likely to lead to high‐value follow‐up projects and it can generate more follow‐up projects. Several cures for the externality are analysed: less communication among scientists, markets for the right to undertake follow‐up projects and the pursuit of citations rather than expected value as a goal for scientists.