Market Volatility, Monetary Policy and the Term Premium
使用时变VAR模型研究股票和债券市场波动对政府债券期限溢价及宏观经济的影响，发现VIX和MOVE冲击对期限溢价有相反作用，且均类似负需求冲击，央行以宽松货币政策应对。
Abstract In this article, we use time‐varying VAR models to study the effects of option‐implied measures of equity and bond market volatilities on the government bond term premium and key macroeconomic variables. We show that the high correlation between the two volatilities requires the shocks to these variables to be jointly identified. We find that a positive shock to the VIX reduces the term premium. We interpret this effect as the result of investors shifting their portfolios away from riskier assets. Also, a positive shock to the VIX has contractionary and disinflationary effects. By contrast, a positive shock to the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Expectations (MOVE), which reflects heightened uncertainty about future changes in interest rates, raises the term premium. Similar to a VIX shock, an increase in bond market volatility also has a contractionary effect, although the negative effects on output and inflation are smaller. Both VIX and MOVE shocks resemble negative demand shocks, albeit of different intensity, to which the central bank responds by easing monetary policy. Depending on the type of volatility impacting the economy, a contraction in output can be associated either with a flattening or steepening of the yield curve.