The Fed and the New Economy
研究1990年代末格林斯潘领导的美联储行为，发现基于通胀和失业的泰勒规则在“新经济”时期失效，但考虑NAIRU下降后，一个包含通胀和失业偏离NAIRU的规则能解释1987-2000年的政策。
This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple "Taylor rule," while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the "New Economy" permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000. THE FED AND THE NEW ECONOMY By Laurence Ball and Robert R. Tchaidze* Starting with John Taylor (1993), a large literature argues that monetary policy under Alan Greenspan is well-explained by a simple reaction function. Interest rates rise when inflation rises, and fall when there is greater economic slack. Estimates of such a reaction function produce high R s for the Greenspan era. Observers such as N. Gregory Mankiw (2001) conclude that monetary policy is predictable based on inflation and aggregate slack, and that there is little role for other variables or for judgement about the economy. This view conflicts, however, with historical accounts of policy in the late 1990s -- the "New Economy" era. Many authors suggest that Greenspan's Fed deviated from its normal behavior because it recognized changes in the economy, such as higher productivity growth. In particular, it held interest rates steady despite a booming economy and falling unemployment that normally would have triggered a tightening. Alan Blinder and Janet Yellen (2001) call this behavior "forbearance"; explaining it, they say, is "an important question for macro-historians." Journa...