Trade Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare
研究了贸易政策如何影响工人的收入风险，并用墨西哥数据发现关税变化在短期内显著影响收入风险，且关税水平会改变宏观经济冲击对收入风险的作用程度。
This paper develops a framework to study empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk and to evaluate the associated welfare consequences. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short-run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.