Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach
研究了房价不确定性如何通过影响家庭购房和房东出售的实物期权决策，进而影响租金水平，并利用香港和内地数据验证了房价对租金的显著影响。
Abstract The conventional wisdom that housing prices are the present value of future rents ignores the fact that unlike dividends on stocks, rent is not discretionary. Housing price uncertainty can affect household property investments, which in turn affect rent. By extending the theory of investment under uncertainty, we model the renter's decision to buy a house and the landlord's decision to sell as the exercising of real options of waiting and examine real options effects on rent. Using data from Hong Kong and mainland China, we find a significant effect of housing price on rent and draw important policy implications.