Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift
研究盈余公告后收益与公告日成交量不同度量之间的关系,发现未被先前交易活动解释的成交量部分(视为投资者意见分歧指标)与公告后收益正相关,支持意见分歧作为额外风险因素的观点。
This paper examines the relationship between post–earnings announcement returns and different measures of volume at the earnings date. We find that post-event returns are strictly increasing in the component of volume that is unexplained by prior trading activity. We interpret unexplained volume as an indicator of opinion divergence among investors and conclude that post-event returns are increasing in ex ante opinion divergence. Our evidence is consistent with Varian [1985], who suggests that opinion divergence may be treated as an additional risk factor affecting asset prices.