Short‐term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline
分析欧盟《马斯特里赫特条约》和《稳定与增长公约》下财政纪律的监测工具，解决两个关键问题：估计财政余额比率的结构性成分，以及利用年度数据计算季度预算余额比率，并构建计量模型来评估各国避免赤字超3%的安全边际。
Abstract Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive deficits over 3% of GDP and to pursue the medium‐term objective of budgetary positions close to balance or in surplus. The SGP also provides regulation for the surveillance of budgetary positions. An analysis of tools for the surveillance of budgetary positions is the focus of this paper. In particular, it addresses two open issues in the empirical public finance literature which are crucial for monitoring fiscal policy discipline in the EU. First, the estimation of the structural component of the fiscal balance ratio. Second, the computation, when only annual fiscal data are available, of quarterly budget balance ratios, using relevant information from quarterly measured macroeconomic series. An econometric model that addresses both issues is presented and estimated. Additionally, this modelling framework allows us to answer questions such as: what is the safety margin that will prevent a particular country from reaching, with certain probability, a budget deficit that breaches the 3% upper bound? Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.