Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence
利用1987-1994年527家美国大企业的数据，发现计算机化在短期内带来正常回报，但长期（5-7年）的生产率贡献是短期的5倍，表明计算机投资需要大量互补投入如组织资本。
We explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large U.S. firms over 1987-1994. We find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term (using 1-year differences) that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments. However, the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to 5 times greater over long periods (using 5- to 7-year differences). The results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time-consuming investments in complementary inputs, such as organizational capital, that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity. The large long-run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.