Applying Benford’s Law to Detect Accounting Data Manipulation in the Banking Industry
利用本福特定律检测银行在金融危机前后是否操纵资产负债表和利润表数据，发现银行通过调整贷款损失准备来虚增利润，困境机构还向下操纵贷款损失准备金和不良贷款。
Abstract We utilise Benford’s Law, which predicts the frequencies in different digits in data, to test if balance sheet and income statement data used to assess bank soundness were manipulated prior to, and also during, the global financial crisis. We find that banks adjust loan loss provisions to manipulate earnings and income upwards. Distressed institutions that have stronger incentives to conceal their financial difficulties also manipulate loan loss allowances and non-performing loans downwards. Moreover, manipulation is magnified during the crisis and expands to encompass regulatory capital.