On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP
证明，在泰勒重叠工资合同模型的变体中，国民生产总值会有一个非常接近1的自回归根，这意味着不能仅凭此根就否定自然率假说或名义冲击在商业周期中的重要作用。
It is shown that GNP will have an autoregressive root very close to unity in a variant of Taylor's (1980a, b) overlapping wage contracts model, for stylized versions of simple money supply rules and plausible values for the model's parameters. In this variant, monetary policy is the only reason for serial correlation in GNP. It is premature, therefore, to conclude, as some authors, have, that the presence of such a root in U.S. GNP is inconsistent with either a stationary natural rate or with nominal shocks playing a major role in the business cycle.