The shale revolution and shifting crude dynamics
提出新方法，通过联合分析原油期货期权和股票指数期权，及时识别供需冲击对油价贡献的转变。研究发现2004-2008年油价受供给冲击主导，此后需求冲击更占主导，2008年金融危机后的需求冲击和页岩革命改变了原油供给行为。
Summary Oil price fluctuates in response to both demand and supply shocks. This paper proposes a new methodology that allows for timely identification of the shifting contribution from the two types of shock through a joint analysis of crude futures options and stock index options. Historical analysis shows that crude oil price movements are dominated by supply shocks from 2004 to 2008, but demand shocks have become much more dominant since then. The large demand shock following the 2008 financial crisis contributes to the start of this dynamics shift, whereas the subsequent shale revolution has fundamentally altered the crude supply behavior.