THE ROLE OF PREFERENCE SHOCKS AND CAPITAL UTILIZATION IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION*
研究偏好冲击是否是大萧条的关键因素，发现一系列异常大的负向冲击在1930年代破坏了美国经济。结合可变资本利用率和轻度递增规模报酬，模型解释了大部分经济活动下降并预测了缓慢复苏。
The article examines the proposition that preference shocks play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. I identify a series of unusually large negative shocks that destabilized the U.S. economy during the 1930s. When the artificial economy is paired with variable capital utilization and mildly increasing returns to scale in production, it is able to account for most of the decline in economic activity and it predicts a tepid recovery.