Introducing the euro‐sting: Short‐term indicator of euro area growth
提出一个简单因子模型，利用实时数据集预测欧元区GDP增长，其预测效果与专业预测者相当，并展示了数据修订和可用性如何影响点预测和不确定性。
Abstract We set out a model to compute short‐term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real‐time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset we show that our simple factor model algorithm, which uses an easy‐to‐replicate methodology, is able to forecast the euro area GDP growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.