How Do College Students Form Expectations?
通过追踪西北大学本科生对专业相关结果的主观预期，发现学生系统性地修正预期，且信息更新符合贝叶斯分析，预期修正与换专业决策相关。
Students rely on their subjective expectations when choosing a college major. Understanding this process of expectations formation is crucial for policy recommendations. This paper focuses on how college students form expectations about various major-specific outcomes. For this purpose, I collect a unique panel dataset of Northwestern University undergraduates which contains their subjective expectations about major-specific outcomes. Though students tend to be over-confident about their future academic performance, I …nd that they revise their expectations about various major-specific outcomes in systematic ways. For example, students who receive positive information (about ability) increase their prediction of short-term future GPA, while individuals who receive negative information only revise their GPA beliefs downward if the information content is very negative. Furthermore, students seem to update their probabilistic beliefs in a manner consistent with Bayesian analysis: Prior beliefs of outcomes realized in college tend to be fairly precise, while new information influences prior beliefs of outcomes that are realized in the workplace. Finally, I present evidence that learning plays a role in the decision to switch majors: Negative revisions in beliefs about graduating in 4 years, enjoying coursework, and expected salary in a major are associated with dropping a major.