An Analysis of Insiders' Use of Prepaid Variable Forward Transactions
研究内部人使用预付可变远期交易（PVF）前后的公司业绩变化，发现PVF交易通常发生在业绩强劲之后、业绩下滑之前，且交易规模远大于公开市场出售，表明内部人可能利用PVF提前分散风险以应对预期业绩下滑。
ABSTRACT This study examines firm performance surrounding insiders' prepaid variable forward (PVF) transactions to infer insiders' information when they enter these off‐market contracts. PVFs allow insiders to hedge downside risk, share performance gains, and obtain immediate large‐sum cash payments for investment or consumption. On average, PVF transactions cover 30% of a sample insider's firm‐specific wealth ($22 million), which is substantially larger than a typical open‐market sale. PVFs systematically follow strong firm performance and precede degraded stock and earnings performance. PVFs also precede periods of negative abnormal returns relative to potential alternative investments. The documented association between PVFs and performance declines does not appear to result from the market's response to transaction disclosure, participant self‐selection, or general price reversals. Thus, evidence suggests that insiders use PVFs to diversify firm‐specific holdings in anticipation of performance declines.