Electricity Futures Prices in an Emissions Constrained Economy: Evidence from European Power Markets
研究了欧洲排放约束经济中电力风险溢价的经济驱动因素，发现电力现货价格波动、需求、收入以及碳期货价格波动显著影响风险溢价，对电力期货定价有重要启示。
We investigate the economic factors that drive electricity risk premia in the European emissions constrained economy. Our analysis is undertaken for monthly baseload electricity futures for delivery in the Nordic, French and British power markets. We find that electricity risk premia are significantly related to the volatility of electricity spot prices, demand and revenues, and the price volatility of the carbon dioxide (CO2) futures traded under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This finding has significant implications for the pricing of electricity futures since it highlights for the first time the role of carbon market uncertainties as a main determinant of the relationship between spot and futures electricity prices in Europe. Our results also suggest that for the electricity markets under scrutiny futures prices are determined rationally by risk-averse economic agents.