Unemployment, Participation and Worker Flows Over the Life-Cycle
利用当前人口调查月度数据，估计男女工人就业、失业和不活动之间的生命周期转换概率，发现离开就业和从不活动到失业的转换是解释参与率和失业率生命周期差异的关键，而失业到就业的转换作用次要。
We estimate and report life-cycle transition probabilities between employment, unemployment and inactivity for male and female workers using Current Population Survey monthly files. We assess the relative importance of each probability in explaining the life-cycle profiles of participation and unemployment rates using a novel decomposition method. A key robust finding is that most differences in participation and unemployment over the life-cycle can be attributed to the probability of leaving employment and the probability of transiting from inactivity to unemployment, while transitions from unemployment to employment (the job finding probability) play secondary roles. We conclude that search models that seek to explain life-cycle work patterns should not ignore transitions to and from inactivity.