Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio
用三种结构向量自回归模型估计美国牺牲比率（降低通胀带来的累计产出损失），发现点估计与以往研究一致，但估计很不精确，对评估紧缩政策的产出成本参考价值有限。
This article investigates the statistical properties of the U.S. sacrifice ratio--the cumulative output loss arising from a permanent reduction in inflation. We derive estimates of the sacrifice ratio from three structural vector autoregression models and then conduct a series of simulation exercises to analyze their sampling distribution. We obtain point estimates of the sacrifice ratio that are consistent with results reported in earlier studies. However, the estimates are very imprecise, which we suggest reflects the poor quality of instruments used in estimation. We conclude that the estimates provide a very unreliable guide for assessing the output cost of disinflation policy.