Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium
提出一个动态风险模型，通过区分成长型与价值型公司的现金流时间分布，解释了价值溢价现象，并说明为何价值股有更高的夏普比率而CAPM表现不佳。
ABSTRACT We propose a dynamic risk‐based model that captures the value premium. Firms are modeled as long‐lived assets distinguished by the timing of cash flows. The stochastic discount factor is specified so that shocks to aggregate dividends are priced, but shocks to the discount rate are not. The model implies that growth firms covary more with the discount rate than do value firms, which covary more with cash flows. When calibrated to explain aggregate stock market behavior, the model accounts for the observed value premium, the high Sharpe ratios on value firms, and the poor performance of the CAPM.