Anchoring Bias in Recall Data: Evidence from Central America
利用中美洲小农户的三年面板数据，研究发现人们在回忆收入、工作时长等客观指标以及幸福感、健康等主观指标时，会不自觉地用最近期的数值作为锚点，导致回忆数据出现系统性偏差。
Abstract Self‐reported retrospective survey data is widely used in empirical work but may be subject to cognitive biases, even over relatively short recall periods. This paper examines the role of anchoring bias in self‐reports of objective and subjective outcomes under recall. We use a unique panel‐survey dataset of smallholder farmers from four countries in Central America collected over a period of three years. We exploit differences between recalled and concurrent responses to quantify the degree of mental anchoring in survey recall data. We assess whether respondents use their reported value for the most recent period as a cognitive heuristic when recalling the value from a previous period, while controlling for the value they reported earlier. The results show strong evidence of sizeable anchoring bias in self‐reported retrospective indicators for both objective measures (income, wages, and working hours) and subjective measures (reports of happiness, health, stress, and well‐being). We also generally observe a larger bias in response to negative changes for objective indicators and a larger bias in response to positive changes for subjective indicators.