The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom
基于英国实时数据集，采用Romer-Romer识别法构建货币政策创新新度量，发现政策利率提高1个百分点使产出下降0.6%、通胀下降最多1个百分点，并解释了价格谜题。
This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our estimates are more comparable to the wider VAR literature but we also reconcile our findings with the Romer–Romer estimates for the United States.