住房财富效应与金融财富效应有多大?一种新方法

How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking · 2011
被引 374 · 同刊同年前 1%
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

提出一种利用消费增长粘性来区分即时与最终财富效应的新方法,基于美国数据估计住房财富的即时边际消费倾向约为2美分,最终效应约为9美分,远大于金融财富冲击的影响。

Abstract

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring "wealth effects" on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption "habits") to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

住房财富效应金融财富效应边际消费倾向消费惯性