POINT SHAVING IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL: A CAUTIONARY TALE FOR FORENSIC ECONOMICS
研究了大学篮球中强队异常频繁地以低于盘口分差获胜的现象，通过分析盘口变动和无赌博线的比赛，发现该模式更可能是球队为最大化获胜概率的策略行为，而非犯罪操纵。
Point shaving is the practice by favored teams of attempting to win by less than the point spread to yield profits for gamblers who bet on the underdog. Consistent with point shaving, strong favorites are anomalously likely to win by less than the spread. To distinguish between innocent and criminal explanations, we (1) exploit information in line movements and (2) isolate games without betting lines to identify games where point shaving is implausible and document similar patterns. The data are better explained by strategic efforts to maximize the probability of winning. These findings highlight the importance of methodology design.