Growing Demand for Animal-Protein-Source Products in Indonesia: Trade Implications
基于1996、1999和2002年印尼家庭调查数据，估计动物蛋白源产品的需求弹性，预测收入增长和城市化将推动家庭从鱼类转向乳制品和肉类，并分析其贸易影响。
New elasticities were estimated from Indonesia's 1996, 1999, and 2002 National Socio-Economic Survey, or SUSENAS, data using a double-hurdle demand specification. The estimates suggest that major changes in Indonesian household diets are expected in the coming years, as income growth is sustained and as urbanization proceeds at a fast pace. The consumption "trading-up" pattern for animal-protein source products observed in many countries may also occur in Indonesia. In this particular case, households will shift from fish to dairy and meat products. The trade impacts of this emerging consumption pattern will be determined by the cost of adjustment in Indonesia's domestic productive capacity and the influence of the country's predominantly Islamic tradition.