Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond
构建了一个统一增长模型，刻画了从马尔萨斯停滞到后马尔萨斯时代再到现代增长阶段的人口、技术与产出演变，解释了人口转型如何使经济从停滞转向持续增长。
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.