The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered
重新检验阿尔弗雷德·考尔斯对道氏理论的经典检验，发现汉密尔顿的择时策略在1902-1929年间实际获得高夏普比率和正阿尔法，反驳了原结论。
Alfred Cowles' test of the Dow Theory apparently provides strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. Cowles (1934) analyzes editorials published by the chief exponent of the Dow Theory, William Peter Hamilton. We review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion. Hamilton's timing strategies actually yield high Sharpe ratios and positive alphas for the period 1902 to 1929. Neural net modeling to replicate Hamilton's market calls provides interesting insight into the Dow Theory and allows us to examine the properties of the theory itself out of sample.