Location Basis Differentials in Crude Oil Prices
研究了北海布伦特原油与美国库欣西得克萨斯中质原油之间的长期价格关系,发现2009年后基差扩大,2015年美国解除出口禁令后价格重新整合,且美国零售汽油价格在2010年后仅对布伦特原油有反应。
We examine the long-run pricing relationship among crude oil prices at the North Sea (Brent) and Cushing (WTI) delivery points. The Brent-WTI location basis differential is stable until December 2009, but it widens to record levels in the next two years. We report on recent changes in the crude oil market that causes the prices to move apart. Brent and WTI prices are cointegrated prior to this structural break, but not between 2010 and 2015. Since the U.S. lifted the crude oil export ban in December 2015, Brent and WTI prices have reintegrated. U.S. retail gasoline prices respond to Brent and WTI before January 2010 and then only to Brent afterwards.