Forecasting Aggregate Period-Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility
本文证明，当新古典生育模型使用微观数据并纳入关键人口学限制进行估计和适当加总后，其预测能力显著优于传统时间序列模型，对理解工资对生育动态的影响有价值。
This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that assign no role to wages. This article demonstrates, that when neoclassical models of fertility are estimated on microdata using methods that incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power.