International Trade and the Business Cycle
构建了一个新实证框架，分析贸易平衡对不同宏观经济冲击的动态响应，发现后布雷顿森林体系时期名义冲击是七国集团贸易平衡波动预测误差方差的重要决定因素。
This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post‐Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G‐7 countries.