Do Analysts Say Anything About Earnings Without Revising Their Earnings Forecasts?
研究发现分析师即使不修改当前季度盈利预测，也会通过文本、目标价调整和未来季度预测修正等方式传递信息，这些信息能预测当前季度盈利预测误差，且信息遗漏会导致预测分歧降低和可预测的公告回报。
ABSTRACT Analysts are selective about which forecasts they update and, thus, convey information about current quarter earnings even when not revising the current quarter earnings (CQE) forecast. We find that (1) textual statements, (2) share price target revisions, and (3) future quarter earnings forecast revisions all predict error in the CQE forecast. We document several reasons analysts sometimes omit information from the CQE forecast: to facilitate beatable forecasts by suppressing positive news from the CQE forecast, to herd toward the consensus, and to avoid small forecast revisions. We also show that omitting information from CQE forecasts leads to lower forecast dispersion and predictable returns at the earnings announcement.