Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and “Normal” Economic Times
利用1997-2010年银行放贷和企业层面数据，研究发现小企业贷款对经济活动影响不大，即使在金融危机期间也是如此。
Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times.