Weather To Go To College
用实地数据检验了“当前天气影响未来决策”的投射偏差假说，发现参观大学当天的云量增加一个标准差，入学概率提高9个百分点。
Does current utility bias predictions of future utility for high stakes decisions? Here I provide field evidence consistent with such Projection Bias in one of life's most thought-about decisions: college enrolment. After arguing and documenting with survey evidence that cloudiness increases the appeal of academic activities, I analyse the enrolment decisions of 1, 284 prospective students who visited a university known for its academic strengths and recreational weaknesses. Consistent with the notion that "current" weather conditions influence decisions about "future" academic activities, I find that an increase in cloudcover of one standard deviation on the day of the visit is associated with an increase in the probability of enrolment of 9 percentage points. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.